Weekly Report Nº 36: Debt talks look promising
[Debt] Relevant creditors (those with enough holdings to complicate the exchange) signed a lock-up agreement and presented a counteroffer with an average NPV of USD 56 (at a 10% exit yield)…
[Debt] Relevant creditors (those with enough holdings to complicate the exchange) signed a lock-up agreement and presented a counteroffer with an average NPV of USD 56 (at a 10% exit yield)…
After a convulsive Q2, a high uncertainty third quarter has begun. We highlight in this report how June's data has updated our view of the near future and how and…
[Activity] April's Oficial activity was published this week, with a higher than expected contraction -17.5% MoM S.A, the largest monthly decline al least since 1970 (the second largest being last March's…
[Activity] A lot of activity data was released this week, with mixed signals. Q1 GDP was released, with a contraction of 4.8% QoQ with just 10 days of COVID lockdown. Investment…
[Debt] Debt talks between the government and bondholders have stalled, and may have derailed. The Treasury exposed their offer to private creditors and their counter-proposals. The average official NPV moved up from…
[Prices] INDEC's May inflation was 1.5%, in line with our expectations (1.6%). Despite the inflation acceleration of late May - see Special Report "Unfrozen Prices" -, June early data is surprising positively, with…
Argentina's economy is stuck in a twin crisis. On the one hand, there is the COVID related shock. April's activity was -20% YoY, the deepest instant contraction in recorded history. The economy is…
[Fiscal] The Treasury finally published April’s fiscal results, in line with our expectations: Primary Deficit of ARS 228 and a total deficit of ARS 266. Revenues increased 14% YoY (-17% in…
SEIDO Flash Report: (un) Frozen prices.Early signals of inflation acceleration. After 6 weeks of very low printings (< 0.5% WoW), inflation accelerated in the last two weeks to 0.9% and 0.75%…
[FX and monetary] Another week of the "new normal". BCS pressure eased this week and BADLAR and TM20 rates have been forced up 500 and 800bp respectively. However, the official…