Protected: Argentina Macro Update. February 2021
Our macro view has not changed significantly last month. Economic recovery continues, inflation picked up some pace and January has not seen major problems at the forex market. However, uncertainty…
Our macro view has not changed significantly last month. Economic recovery continues, inflation picked up some pace and January has not seen major problems at the forex market. However, uncertainty…
The macroeconomy is entering into a new normal, a mediocre status quo with low growth, restricted by lack of imports and higher inflation but leaving the explosive path. We still…
A new set of measures has been announced by the Central Bank and the Treasury to curb the currency run and the FX reserves depletion. Despite the coordinated message to…
[Markets] Market sentiment remains pessimistic after the latest tightening of capital controls and FX premium widened to new record highs and, despite increased efforts, the central bank is still losing…
The government enacted a new set of regulations tightening FX controls to new extreme levels. The combo includes an increase of the exchange rate through taxes for dollarization purposes, further rationing of…
With the debt exchange behind, the focus is now back to macro imbalances. The fiscal deficit is headed towards a record high and the size of the domestic financial market makes…
[Fiscal] Fiscal data surprised (positively) in July, but 2020 is headed for a record deficit. The above expectations results were especially driven by the expenditure side. Even though we consider that these short-term…
[Prices] INDEC's Inflation accelerated to 2.2% in June, above our expectations (1.9% est.), Acceleration was mostly driven by dollarized goods: clothing, and household and recreation equipment. We believe that this…
[Debt] Relevant creditors (those with enough holdings to complicate the exchange) signed a lock-up agreement and presented a counteroffer with an average NPV of USD 56 (at a 10% exit yield)…
After a convulsive Q2, a high uncertainty third quarter has begun. We highlight in this report how June's data has updated our view of the near future and how and…