SEIDO Macro Update: How Does An FX Shock Look
SEIDO Macro Update: How does an FX shock look?The government seems to be following the Rocky Balboa FX strategy (“It's not about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can…
SEIDO Macro Update: How does an FX shock look?The government seems to be following the Rocky Balboa FX strategy (“It's not about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can…
[Activity] April's Oficial activity was published this week, with a higher than expected contraction -17.5% MoM S.A, the largest monthly decline al least since 1970 (the second largest being last March's…
[Activity] A lot of activity data was released this week, with mixed signals. Q1 GDP was released, with a contraction of 4.8% QoQ with just 10 days of COVID lockdown. Investment…
[Debt] Debt talks between the government and bondholders have stalled, and may have derailed. The Treasury exposed their offer to private creditors and their counter-proposals. The average official NPV moved up from…
[Prices] INDEC's May inflation was 1.5%, in line with our expectations (1.6%). Despite the inflation acceleration of late May - see Special Report "Unfrozen Prices" -, June early data is surprising positively, with…
Argentina's economy is stuck in a twin crisis. On the one hand, there is the COVID related shock. April's activity was -20% YoY, the deepest instant contraction in recorded history. The economy is…
[Fiscal] The Treasury finally published April’s fiscal results, in line with our expectations: Primary Deficit of ARS 228 and a total deficit of ARS 266. Revenues increased 14% YoY (-17% in…
SEIDO Flash Report: (un) Frozen prices.Early signals of inflation acceleration. After 6 weeks of very low printings (< 0.5% WoW), inflation accelerated in the last two weeks to 0.9% and 0.75%…
[FX and monetary] Another week of the "new normal". BCS pressure eased this week and BADLAR and TM20 rates have been forced up 500 and 800bp respectively. However, the official…
[Monetary and FX] Forex market remains under stress. The BCS premium increased to 86% this week, reaching new highs since capital controls were imposed and also surpassing records of the…