[Debt] On a Press Conference, Minister Guzman highlighted the main lines of the debt proposal but details are still pending. Lacking details, yesterday's announcement can only be analyzed superficially. The message,…
In the onset of a new strong increase in the Blue Chip Swap premium - it grew from 40% to 65% in two weeks - the elusive question on whether the non-commercial…
March base-case scenario is now gone. In this report, we highlight the main features of this new COVID-19, supply squeezed, monetary financed, locked down, rereprofiled base case scenario1. Our new growth forecast for…
[Markets] Once again, Buenos Aires extends the deadline for BP21 holders’ consensus to February 3rd. Guzman defined an agenda. The Blue Swap Chip and the sovereign spread moved upwards. The government issued Lebads…
[Activity] The government has finally decreed the Lockdown on non-essential activities, and the economic activity in now navigating into uncharted waters. Thinking of a mild contraction (-2.5% 2020) seems now overly optimistic. We have…
SEIDO Special Report: Black Swan Coronavirus is finally among us, and the government advanced its contingency plan to contain it. Calculating a precise estimation of its incidence on the economy…
[Markets and debt] Global markets are being rattled by the combined shock of Coronavirus and the derail of Saudi Arabia and Russia's oil negotiations, and global growth forecasts for 2020 are being quickly revised. Argentina…
[Fiscal] January primary fiscal result - the first January with deficit since 2015 - surprised on the downside. We adjust our forecast for the year to -0.7% from -0.4%. For the first time…
[Markets] The IMF calls for bondholders to help to resolve the crisis. debt services capacity has worsened compared to July's 2019 (Pre PASO) debt sustainability analysis from "sustainable but not with high…
[Prices] Positive surprise on inflation, standing at 2.3% (vs. 3.2% estimated and 3.7% in December). Suprise mostly concentrated on one-shot deflation in health and less so in domestic and cleaning services, were…