[Debt] Debt talks between the government and bondholders have stalled, and may have derailed. The Treasury exposed their offer to private creditors and their counter-proposals. The average official NPV moved up from…
[Prices] INDEC's May inflation was 1.5%, in line with our expectations (1.6%). Despite the inflation acceleration of late May - see Special Report "Unfrozen Prices" -, June early data is surprising positively, with…
Argentina's economy is stuck in a twin crisis. On the one hand, there is the COVID related shock. April's activity was -20% YoY, the deepest instant contraction in recorded history. The economy is…
[Fiscal] The Treasury finally published April’s fiscal results, in line with our expectations: Primary Deficit of ARS 228 and a total deficit of ARS 266. Revenues increased 14% YoY (-17% in…
SEIDO Flash Report: (un) Frozen prices.Early signals of inflation acceleration. After 6 weeks of very low printings (< 0.5% WoW), inflation accelerated in the last two weeks to 0.9% and 0.75%…
[FX and monetary] Another week of the "new normal". BCS pressure eased this week and BADLAR and TM20 rates have been forced up 500 and 800bp respectively. However, the official…
[Monetary and FX] Forex market remains under stress. The BCS premium increased to 86% this week, reaching new highs since capital controls were imposed and also surpassing records of the…
[Activity] March, with just 10 days of quarantine, and April's early activity data is worst than expected and looking like a 2001 crisis kind of contraction. The government is stepping up…
[Prices] Price controls are doing the dirty work - for now - and inflation is going down. This week's inflation runs at 0.3% WoW and monthly inflation already stands below 2.0% and is…
The government's debt offer was finally unveiled. New bonds' NPV estimates are in the range 31-44 dollars (at 10-12% exit yield, depending on the bond) and NPV haircut ranges between 45% and…